Guest post by Monique Poirier
I have always been a National voter and until recently, couldn’t have imagined voting any other way.
Labour hadn’t delivered on virtually any of its flagship policies; the Greens were too extreme; many of ACT’s values didn’t align with mine; and New Zealand First was simply never an option.
So, with my preferred party having polled consistently above Labour since 2017 until March this year, my vote was as good as locked in.
Everything changed when the pandemic hit. The polls shifted dramatically in favour of a Government that was handling Covid-19 well in comparison to most other countries, and National spent months bogged down in internal turmoil.
The effects of that turmoil were so off-putting that I considered not voting at all. To say loyal supporters like me were disappointed with the events during those months of chaos would be an understatement.
As the waters calmed and more polls were released, it became clear to me – and the rest of the country – that the election was going to be vastly different to the one I’d been expecting. In 2019, we were wondering who National could form a coalition with. In 2020, we’re wondering whether Labour will be able to govern alone, or if it will need the support of the Greens.
Here enters tactical voting.
The election is likely to go one of two ways: a Labour-Greens coalition, or Labour governing alone.
The thought of a Labour-Green coalition – like the polls are suggesting – is an alarming prospect for a voter like me. With New Zealand First almost certainly out of Parliament after the election, the ”handbrake” will be gone. Given the economic catastrophe the country is facing, this possibility has, at times, sent a shiver down my spine.
A Labour-only government is slightly more palatable. With Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson at the helm, it’s clear Labour is taking a more moderate approach to politics than their Green counterparts. This is appealing to centrist and swing voters. Labour certainly isn’t going to put that popularity at risk by announcing and implementing policy that would be seen as “too progressive” by a large portion of the population.
Given that one of these two options seem almost inevitable, tactical voting would suggest that I give my party vote to Labour. The more votes for Labour, the more likely they are to get the 61 seats required to govern alone. This would mean my least desirable option – a Labour-Greens coalition – wouldn’t come to fruition.
Based on the number of conversations I have had with usual National voters, a number are taking this approach. It’s not that they want a Labour government – they just really don’t want the Greens to be in government.
I also know of National supporters who are voting ACT this election to “help out National.” But with ACT now hovering around 7% (they only need about 3%), it’s not them who needs the help anymore.
So, the most rational thing for me to do would be to vote Labour. But I won’t be doing that.
Here’s the thing: I don’t want a Labour-led government. I don’t want Labour governing alone. I don’t want a Labour government governing with the Greens. I didn’t want the current Labour-Greens-New Zealand First coalition. I want a National-led government.
National best aligns with my values. It’s the party I trust to get us through this economic crisis, so that’s who I’m going to be voting for. How can I possibly get the result I want if I don’t tick that option at the voting both?
That’s what voting is about, for me: voting for the leadership that aligns with your values – not just holding your nose and ticking the least-bad option.
Maybe I’m alone in this. But just imagine if I wasn’t. Imagine if all those other would-be National voters actually voted for the party they wanted.
How different would the election results be?