Final Poll of Polls Update

Five more polls this week. Four today. Little change. National can govern alone. Winston will not make it (but it could be close).

Five new polls have come out since we last updated our poll of polls. Four of them came in the last 24 hours. Together, they show National continuing to be able to govern alone, according to our latest estimates (available on the left hand side of the pundit front page). We estimate National will win 52% of the vote tomorrow, giving them 67 seats. There have been 57 polls released this year by the five firms we follow, and all 57 of them estimated National would win the seats to govern alone. Fifty of those also estimated that National had an absolute majority of the votes, too.

We estimate that Labour will get 35 seats on around 28% of the vote, and that the Greens will win 14 seats on a little over 11% of the vote. The rise of the Greens, at the expense of Labour, is biggest change during this election campaign and, depending on how the Greens manage their new-found popularity, could alter the landscape of New Zealand politics for a long time.

We also estimate New Zealand First will not make it, despite the two recent polls giving them over five percent support. In the last two weeks there have been nine polls released. Seven show New Zealand First under 5%, including one showing them under 3% and another three showing them under 4%. On the flipside, two of the nine polls show New Zealand First over the threshold. On balance, this leads us to believe they will come up short. To be sure, New Zealand First's support has increased significantly over the campaign. But not enough.

For the other small parties, there is little change. ACT, Mana, the Maori Party, and United Future all need electorate wins in order to stay alive. Many of these parties are polling so poorly that even an electorate win will likely give them no additional list members.

Enjoy the election tomorrow. And, for those who celebrate it, have a happy Thanksgiving. Turkey-induced coma coming up for me in 5-4-3-2-1...