A leadership coup so close to a general election isn’t the ideal situation for a party in freefall but by electing Todd Muller as its new leader the National party may see a positive turnabout in fortune writes John Elliot.
Two poor political polls within the same week had seen National for the first time in over a decade dropping major support in the face of a competent and assured COVID-19 health response from the Coalition government. Step forward the relatively unknown Todd Muller, who by Friday afternoon had secured the National party leadership from the incumbent Simon Bridges & in his first speech laid down the basic foundations of his unlikely bid to become Prime Minister this election.
The question now is what can National do to get their election campaign back on track whilst at the same time overcoming a very popular Prime Minister?
1. Focus on the economy: Now that the health response & public sacrifice has seen COVID-19 essentially eliminated in New Zealand the focus of the country needs to fall on the economic consequences of a harsh lockdown and the changed world in which we’re operating within. Back in 2017 the Labour Party, even with a wave of public goodwill and large-scale media promotion of Ardern, began dropping support in the week before the election as voters began to focus on who’d best manage the economy.
2. Make the election between the parties, not the leaders: Considering Ardern’s personal popularity Muller should be weary of making the election a one-on-one battle but rather shine a light on those within Labour sitting below Ardern and Grant Robertson. A party with inept ministers such as Phil Twyford and Kelvin Davis within their top 5 shows a weakness that has ensured a gulf between what Ardern has promised in the past, and what has actually been delivered. National have the more capable team and need to promote those people at every opportunity. Nikki Kaye a particular asset in this regard.
3. Avoid distractions, stay on point: Slushies, Jamie Lee-Ross, and in the end, Simon Bridges himself became an unwanted distraction for voters from the important messages National wanted to convey. National’s message needs to be clear and positive whilst not playing down the importance of getting the economic response right today so that future generations are not unduly punished or burdened long term.
4. Rule out Winston, again: Shut the door on New Zealand First and not allow Peters to play the two major parties off against each other. Leave Winston with no option but to sabotage Labour for the votes required to ensure his party’s survival.
No doubt the next four months will see a much different election campaign than one with Bridges at the helm of the National party. If Muller is even half the leader he promises he’ll be, and the scrutiny moves more onto the government’s record of non-delivery of its key economic outcomes, then we may have a real contest on our hands.
Expect a much larger ‘team’ focus from National and for them to make a real race of it come September.
John Elliot is a writer in Hamilton. He tweets at @rightofcenture2