The Treasury released its budget economic forecasts. What do they say about the economy over the next four months?
Read MoreThe Economic Runup to the Election.
Crises!
A conversation discussion between a minister and advisor.
Read MoreThe power of... nothing. Robertson
Grant Robertson hopes the promise of no recession and falling inflation is what voters really, really want to hear right now, more than grandiose new policies. But he’s keeps headroom for election promises
Read MoreA Fiscal Fantasyland?
The May 4 issue of the London “Economist” headlined that ‘Governments are living in a fiscal fantasyland’. It focussed on the four biggest economies – the US, China, EU and Japan – although many smaller ones would also illustrate its proposition, that each was losing control of its fiscal position with rising government debt.
Read MoreBudgeting the Merry Month of May
Much of the Northern Hemisphere thinks we are in the merry month of May. Here it is budget month with much speculation in the lead up to the May 18 announcements and much superficial commentary after, all largely forgotten by June.
Read MoreR.E.S.P.E.C.T. Find out what it means to Me...ka
Meka Whaitiri’s switch from Labour to Te Pāti Māori raises questions about whose mana is being enhanced - not by the decision itself but how it’s being done. What thought has she given to her public duties as an MP?
Read MoreFans for Forecasts
We are going into the budget season when economic forecasting becomes especially prominent. There is a huge gap between how professional forecasters think about the exercise and how the commentariat treats forecasts. Here are some insights into the way those forecasters think, even if it is boring compared to what is in the public rhetoric.
Read MoreWatering Down Three Waters?
How far has the government’s Three Waters policy retreated?
Read MoreMaking the New Zealand Economy More Resilient to Shocks
The Fashion for Generic Management is Not Working.
The public service is suffering from the downgrading of the role of professionals, experts and those at the workface with the public.
Read MoreThe faulty logic of Stuart Nash & the Ombudsman's opportunity
When is a cabinet minister not a cabinet minister? The faulty logic of Stuart Nash has landed him and Labour in a heap of trouble but opened the door to serious reform of the Official Information Act
Read MoreWhy Are We Making So Little Progress Towards Reducing Child Poverty?
There was great disappointment following the just released poverty figures for the year ended to June 2022. Whatever your take, we are not facing up to the real child poverty problems.
Read MoreHigh Performance Instability in the Financial Sector
Evaluating the recent crashes of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Switzerland plus two other banks (perhaps more by the time you read this) needs to begin with a review of the inevitable instability in the financial sector.
Read MoreSaving Stuart Nash: Explaining Chris Hipkins' unexpected political calculation
Chris Hipkins has shown himself to be a quick fix guy in his time as Prime Minister. So why didn’t he take the path of least resistance and sack Stuart Nash? How does that compare to Rob Campbell? And what does it tell us about this year’s election?
Read MoreRadical Uncertainty
Two senior economists challenge some of the foundations of current economics.
Read MoreGabrielle’s Trumpet Challenges Fiscal Stability
Cyclonic Storms Raise Economic Questions.
Read MoreCensus 2023
Why I Take the Population Census Seriously
Read MoreMinsky and the Housing Market
Speculative bubbles have occurred in the New Zealand housing market
Read MoreMum knows better than Maureen where the winds of climate change are blowing
The terrible damage of Cyclone Gabrielle has the potential to up-end election year just as it has up-ended so many lives. For National it brings danger (enter Maureen Pugh), for the Greens, opportunity
Read MoreSo What is Special About Housing?
This column is adapted from a paper I gave to Southland U3A on Friday, February 17. Later I shall post a column which will analyse housing bubbles.
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