While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates.
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A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.
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Despite the headlines, things are not much worse than at the time of the 2023 budget, but fiscal management is always difficult.
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Public policy frequently suffers because we don’t look at alternatives.
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Evergrande and Country Garden – two giant Chinese property development companies – are a portent of the turbulence before us.
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Banning mobile phones in schools points to wider issues.
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The recent reduction in the US credit rating signals that market lenders are not happy with the US fiscal arrangements. New Zealand’s lower rating is a warning that we could do better too.
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It is the professionalism – competence and integrity – of the doctors, nurses and technicians who provide the care which obscures the managerial failure.
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It is too easy to react to a problem rather than to tackle it thoughtfully.
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The Chatham Islands flag waves above the New Zealand one. Perhaps the Chathams offer insights on to how to govern New Zealand better.
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Its principles may involve outcomes which are not in the public interest.
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Are we evaluating the economy on the right criteria? Perhaps we should be paying more attention to rising overseas debt.
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We have it around the wrong way. The issue is not what the arts contribute to market output. It is what market output contributes to the arts – and a lot more besides.
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Why doesn’t our government reflect New Zealanders; why doesn’t Parliament make them?
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Was another IT debacle inevitable given the management arrangements?
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Steven Levitt, famous for his Freakanomics, shows that being an economist is not just mouthing supply and demand.
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The Treasury released its budget economic forecasts. What do they say about the economy over the next four months?
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A conversation discussion between a minister and advisor.
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The May 4 issue of the London “Economist” headlined that ‘Governments are living in a fiscal fantasyland’. It focussed on the four biggest economies – the US, China, EU and Japan – although many smaller ones would also illustrate its proposition, that each was losing control of its fiscal position with rising government debt.
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Much of the Northern Hemisphere thinks we are in the merry month of May. Here it is budget month with much speculation in the lead up to the May 18 announcements and much superficial commentary after, all largely forgotten by June.
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