Much of the Northern Hemisphere thinks we are in the merry month of May. Here it is budget month with much speculation in the lead up to the May 18 announcements and much superficial commentary after, all largely forgotten by June.
There was great disappointment following the just released poverty figures for the year ended to June 2022. Whatever your take, we are not facing up to the real child poverty problems.
Evaluating the recent crashes of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Switzerland plus two other banks (perhaps more by the time you read this) needs to begin with a review of the inevitable instability in the financial sector.
Keynes warned us that practical men and women are but slaves of defunct economists. The comment is particularly relevant as we try to understand the prospects for inflation.
The figure is from the Treasury forecasts. It shows the May (Budget) and December (Half Year) tracks of GDP.
The two most comprehensive forecasts of the New Zealand economy are by the Reserve Bank and the Treasury. They are especially important because they inform monetary and fiscal policy. What do they say?
More competition is often proposed as a means of moderating monopolies and oligopolies. It may be better to reduce competition for the electricity industry meeting our climate change needs.
Recently, I have often been asked whether we (New Zealand or the World) are experiencing a stagflation. There is no meaningful ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer. You have to define the term before deciding what is going on.