The revised GDP growth figures are bad news for New Zealand, unless you inhabit the same fantasy world as government Ministers.
Yesterday I posted about the way the government is massaging / contorting the quarterly GDP growth figures to make its performance appear better than it actually is.
Ratko Mladic on trial at The Hague for war crimes during Bosnian war of 90s; Chen Guangcheng tells US congressional hearing his family is being harassed; Burmese president pledges to stop buying weapons from North Korea; Pakistani president will attend NATO summit; anti-Putin 'Occupy' protesters in Moscow moved on; and more
Top of the Agenda: Former Bosnian Serb Leader on Trial for War Crimes
Of all the organisations that might have become champions of the welfare state, it's Treasury that has shown why we need it -- and why it is at risk
Last week Treasury released work on income and poverty that it commissioned from the University of Otago.
National says “the economy has grown in ten of the last eleven quarters.” That phrasing is pretty unusual. I wonder why.
For months, John Key and other National Ministers have been reminding the public that “the economy has grown in ten of the last eleven quarters.” Here is Key,
Palestinian prisoners have ended their mass hunger strike before anyone died. Now the world needs to ask some serious questions about the mass incarceration of Palestinians as a tool to break their resistance to occupation.
Israel has managed to avert a massive problem for itself...for a while perhaps.
The Save TVNZ 7 campaign moves into top gear this week – New Zealand loses another public service channel - and Freeview has a rough road ahead.
New Zealand viewers have just lost access to another public service television broadcaster – and most of us didn’t know we had it. It’s SBS, the public service broadcaster established to meet the needs of Australia’s ethnic minorities – a very supercharged model for our own late, lamented Stratos channel.
Colin Craig has been hogging headlines this past week. Many have laughed him off - most notably the PM literally rolled his eyes - but that would be perilous in the extreme. Here's why
Colin Craig is a bundle of contradictions and surprises, but if you don't get that he's now a voice in New Zealand politics, you're not paying attention. And he will keep surprising us for a while yet, I think, as he kicks against the right-wing 'moral majority' box in which he's so quickly been placed.
Obama's evolution on the rights of gays to marry has taken him to the only tenable place...the place others went not so long ago to bring to an end the crime of marrying someone of another race. Welcome to the 21st Century.
President Obama made one gutsy call this week in his backing of gay marriage. It was pragmatic, and it was opportune.
It also represents a historic move forward in civil rights and is all the better coming from a man whose parents would not have been allowed to marry in some states only forty years ago due to other civil rights issues.
Do you believe in an interventionist God? Well, don't say so ... in case you offend people.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) recently ruled that a church’s billboard stating “Jesus Heals Cancer” was in breach of the Advertising Code of Ethics. The Equippers Church billboard was found to be offensive, misleading and social irresponsible.
So there are all these teen mum banging out babies, right? And it's costing all us taxpayers heaps. It's a modern scandal Something must be done. Now! Well, maybe not...
As unreliable as self-selecting TV and website polls are, it's fair to assume that most voters are applauding National's decision to offer free contraception to women on the benefit and their teenage daughters. The strong puritanical streak in our national psyche takes a firm line with people who have children when they can't afford to provide for them.
Beyond Today: a values story is the Green party’s story. On the Greens’ fortieth birthday, it says Values is a history of which the party should be very proud, and values are the new politics
We need the quants, and the poets, both. We need the activists and the Members of Parliament, the individuals, and the collectivists.
We need Green values. We need us all.
Let us begin.
So ends Beyond Today: a values story, to be launched at the Greens’ AGM on June 1, 2012.
As they say, a week is a long time in politics
Last week was a strange one and may just have been one of those tipping points for the Key Government. For me it began with a political corpse and ended with a real one.
Debt's bad, right? So why is National asking our best and brightest to take on more if they want to get smarter?
Steven Joyce is one of the smoothest operators in politics - whether you agree with him or not, he's gets is evidential ducks in a row and you can only guess at the number of spreadsheets he's crafted to back his decisions. Which is why the twisted nature of his student allowance reforms is kind of surprising.
How twisted, you ask?
Rodney Hide wisely has left Parliament behind him. But that doesn't mean he gets to pretend that he never was in Parliament.
According to the NZ Herald (which in turn cites TV3's The Nation ... sorry, Tim!), Rodney Hide has done with politics, is busy renovating his house and moving on with his post-Parliamentary life. Good for him.
Could immigration policy save the French incumbent? Nicolas Sarkozy's political future is decided this weekend
After the first round of the French presidential election saw a record vote for the anti-immigration National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy’s advisor Patrick Buisson has orchestrated a reorientation of Centre-right incumben
Republicans are reacting badly to President Obama's apparent politicizing of foreign policy success...how extraordinary.
Last time I checked, Obama never claimed he killed Osama, but why let the facts get in the way of a good piece of Republican whinging?
It’s campaign season stateside and each political party is equally adept at taking the moral high ground when it suits (remember ‘high’ is relative as we are talking politics).
Autumn has become a season of scandals and sideshows – John Key’s casino-convention centre “scandal”, the Banks-Dotcom donation “scandal”, the sideshow of the mythical David Shearer leadership challenge – all soon to be wiped away by the start of the main game: the defining Budget of 2012.
The political scandals and sideshows of Autumn 2012 have much in common. They are structured on screeds of speculation and scraps of substance.
Now we know why John Banks won't tell us about Kim Dotcom's donation. Blame the bloody lawyers ... again.
After two days of appearing on TV doing a very good impression of a befuddled senior citizen in the latter stages of senile dementia (as well as engaging in what is probably the most bizarre phone inte
John Banks' answers to the Dotcom donations have been incredible, but have left the Prime Minister with no choice but to back him. But the differing versions of events are so stark, let's not pretend that everyone can be telling the truth
It's all about standards -- that crucial question in politics of where you draw the line of acceptable behaviour. When it comes to Kim Dotcom's donation to John Banks' mayoral campaign, Prime Minister John Key can sit uncomfortably but safely on the legal side of the line. For now. But the thing about politics is that lines have a habit of changing.
The Poll of Poll numbers do not back up the silly stories about Labour currently doing the rounds.
Having crunched the latest Poll of Poll numbers, I have come to the conclusion that many in the New Zealand commentariat are doing pretty good Headless Chicken Little impressions.
Kim Dotcom and John Banks have quite different stories about their relationship. It might matter an awful lot who is telling the truth.
Politics costs money. Anyone who has had anything to do with any sort of campaign - be it to pressure the Council to fix the potholes in your street, or to get the leader of a political party elected as Prime Minister of New Zealand - knows this.
Five reasons why talk of turning ANZAC Day into our national day is not smart
I took my son to an ANZAC Day service today. He's three and it was his first attendance. We talked about soldiers, not wanting to fight, sometimes needing to fight mean people and bravery. The sun shone like no other ANZAC Day I can remember, and with my grandad's World War I medals in my pocket I thought, this isn't my national day.
New Zealand troops could be out of Afghanistan next year – but are we stumbling out of one ill-considered international military commitment straight into another, and what happens to our reconstruction and development commitment to the country our troops are leaving?
As New Zealand prepared for ANZAC Day, Prime Minister John Key made a surprise announcement: New Zealand could end its military commitment to Afghanistan as early as next year. The previous timetable – affirmed only a fortnight ago by Defence Minister Jonathan Coleman – had us leaving some time in 2014. So, what’s changed?
Depressed and suicidal prisoners in New Zealand are placed in so-called 'at risk' cells where they are deprived of sleep and subjected to humiliating searches
Kim Dotcom recently spent a month on remand in Mt Eden prison after the police agreed to act on behalf of US authorities. The police took away his cars and froze his bank accounts.
That SkyCity deal is sweet as. The law hasn't been traded, more pokies won't do any harm and now that the government's saying it might walk away from the deal, well, that doesn't amount to a backdown. Yeah right.
Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce did his own unique version of the 'Dead Parrot' sketch on Q+A this morning. Just as Michael Palin once memorably stood at a shop counter insisting that a dead bird was alive, Joyce argued that white was black when it came to the Sky City conventional centre deal.
With houses prices hitting new highs in our main cities, is the sense of economic gloom finally lifting from New Zealand? And what implications might that have for MPs?
It's been coming for a while, but QV has now confirmed that our love affair with bricks and mortar is back at record levels.
When National revealed its "law and order" policy before the last election, I wrote this post on it. Now that Judith Collins reportedly is preparing to introduce legislation to deliver that policy, here are some more thoughts.
Prior to the 2011 election, Judith Collins announced that National planned to legislate to permit the ongoing "civil detention" of offenders deemed at high risk of future sexual or violent offending even after their jail sentences were complete.
After a year of posturing, the French presidential campaign finally begins
The official release of French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s campaign manifesto completes the spectrum of policies on offer, leaving citizens a fortnight to make their final judgements before the first round of the elections.
Television New Zealand and NZ On Air have managed to bring the pot of public broadcasting services back to the boil – one with its very commercial salaries, the other with more funding for “commercially attractive” local content.
TVNZ can’t afford to operate non-commercial television channels – but it can afford to pay commercially attractive salaries, with 10% of its staff earning more than $100,000, members of its top management and sales staff sharing bonuses totaling $1.8 million, and 32 employees wandering round with $10,000 credit cards. And in the real commercial world, it probably must.
The Crafar Farms sale has become a flashpoint for public concern over foreign ownership. As politicians figure out how to repsond, how can we keep the land without closing the door to business and trade?
The Overseas Investment Office's recommendation on the Crafar Farms sale is sitting on the desks of Maurice Williamson and Jonathan Coleman, ticking away like that cliched old time bomb.
If we think about our taxes one at a time, we might think one thing. But if you consider them all together, a different picture emerges.
Combinations matter, and can make complex things either better or worse than the sum of the individual parts. What’s that? You want a folksy introductory example? OK:
Do you like chorizo? How about asparagus? And sorbet? Yes? Then you’ll love my new chorizo and asparagus sorbet! Wait, where are you going…
They call him 'the man who makes Hollande tremble,' but does he?
A certain air of uncertainty has crept into the French presidential campaign in recent days, augmented considerably by an LH-2/Yahoo poll result putting Front de Gauche (Left Front) candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon in third place with 15% of the vote in the first round of the run-off system.
National's ministers are looking shakey amidst allegations of cronyism and defamation. So who's benefitting in the polls? Um, National. So what's going on?
The latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll is a kick in the pants for Labour. After a ministerial resignation and a fortnight where the whiff of cronyism was never far from National, the governing party can still command more than 50 percent in the polls. That's astounding.
Where's the line between error and crime? If you want to be lenient towards the Lombard Four because they made a simple mistake, then hardly anyone deserves to be locked up
Just a mistake. A misjudgment. Surely not criminal. So says Stephen Franks, and I'm sure others, in response to the sentencing of the four Lombard directors this past week. The line goes that the shame, and perhaps civil damages, are as far as society should go in punishing these otherwise decent men. I'm not buying.
One of these cases is not like the other, one of these cases is not quite the same. Can you tell why?
So the police investigate a complaint by the Prime Minister against a member of the media, where it is alleged that a "private communication" was intentionally intercepted using a covert recording device.
Judith Collins is threatening defamation action against those who accuse her of leaking. But I thought you could say anything you wanted about MPs?
Just a very quick note on the announcement by Judith Collins that she will sue Trevor Mallard, Andrew Little and Radio NZ for defamation ... mainly because I've yet to see any commentary by those who ought to be talking about it ... and yes, Steven Price and Graeme Edgeler, I am looking at you.
Our tax system asks too much of those with little, and too little of those with much.
You may recall that our tax system got a major overhaul in the 2010 Budget, with income tax rates going down while GST went up. This changed substantially the shares of tax revenue being paid by poor people and by rich people. Poor people pay for more of the government than they used to, while rich people pay for less.
The police decision not to prosecute Bradley Ambrose means we'll never really know what happened at Newmarket's Urban Cafe. And that suits everyone just fine.
The term "a Solomonic judgment" is often misused. The point of King Solomon's "they-get-half-a-baby-each" decision, after all, was not actually that cleaving the infant in twain would best serve the needs of justice, but rather that proposing this outcome enabled him to see who was the child's real mother.
UN Security Council supports Syria peace plan; South Korea and US to reach ballistic missile agreement; China's social media block searches for ousted Chongqing party secretary; French gunman killed in police shoot out; Mali president toppled; Karzai says West will fund Afghan military for 10 years; and more
Top of the Agenda: UN Security Council Supports Syria Peace Plan
Nick Smith got it right, then wrong, then right again. But Is this the second or third act in the Greek tragedy that is his political career?
The loss of Nick Smith from National's top ranks has the whiff of Greek tragedy. Or perhaps a Disney cartoon. You can almost see the little angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other. Several times Smith does the right thing and refuses to get involved in a friend's ACC case. But then he relents – the devil gets in his ear – and it's all over.
French police in armed standoff with man suspected of killings at Jewish school; Obama to visit Korean border ahead of nuclear summit in Seoul; Myanmar invites US and EU to send observers for parliamentary byelections; Somali pirates free British hostage; Peru cancels UK Royal Navy visit; and more
Top of the Agenda: French Police in Standoff with Shooting Suspect
Just because you and I need to save more, who says the government needs to do the same? With cheap money around, how about we turn this whole austerity kick on its head and start talking about growth?
It's a lock. Ten out of ten. No room for doubt. Bill English is going to deliver a surplus a surplus in 2014/15 come hell or low tax take. That was the message from the Finance Minister on Q+A.
US and Britain affirm special relationship and commitment to diplomatic solution over Iran; US-UK foreign policy established after 9/11 about to end; Assad emails reveal advice from Iran, shopping sprees; South Korea-US free trade deal comes into effect; Britain may lose AAA credit rating; Ugandan victims react angrily after seeing Kony 2012; and more
Top of the Agenda: Obama, Cameron in Show of Unity
The way to get the Ports of Auckland back on track is for the Auckland City Council to step back, change its expectations and take the long view. As it stands, two key assumptions about the port are dragging it down
All the detail and distraction in the Ports of Auckland dispute make it look like a complicated industrial mess. And on one level, it is. Depending on your point of view, it's all about who controls the port, or work-life balance or bad faith bargaining. But the two central points for me come back to the Auckland Council's ownership of the port.
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visits Afghanistan; Panetta insists killing of 16 Afghan civilians by a US solider at the weekend will not undermine US strategy to wind down war by 2014; Asian countries urge businesses to raise wages to limit labour unrest; China defends rare earth minerals export policy; Amnesty International alleges illegal detentions in Sri Lanka; Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga found guilty of recruiting child soldiers; Mitt Romney continues to lead Republican voters concerned about US economy; and more
Top of the Agenda: Panetta Visits Afghanistan
Our broadcasting bureaucrats are herding regional television broadcasters into using digital terrestrial transmission services. Unfortunately, the folks at home aren’t following their lead.
On the surface, New Zealand’s transition to digital TV broadcasting is going well. 83% of our homes with television have made the conversion - and we are still six months out from the date when the first of our regions says “Good Night Kiwi” to the old, spectrum-hungry era of analogue transmission.
The new Labour boss has read the public mood well by putting his name to limits on foreign ownership, but is playing his cards close to his chest on the policies that will define the first chapter of his leadership. So what policies are for the chop?
Labour MPs will feel happier than they have for some time after David Shearer's performance on Q+A this Sunday.
The first few polls of the new year and the new term are in, and together they suggest a markedly different political landscape has developed since the election.
After the election in November, pollsters took a well-deserved break for the remainder of 2011, much to the relief of politics-weary news watchers. Now that we are in 2012, however, the first few post-election polls are trickling in. We have seen four Roy Morgan polls and a TV3 poll so far, but nothing yet from TVNZ, the Herald, or Fairfax.
The first nation to give women the vote now has few women leading newspapers, businessness and political parties. So this international women's day, what can we do about that?
To uncover and address the many reasons why New Zealand women continue to be under-represented as leaders, a friend and I started Women’s Futures Month for March 2012 from our home city of Christchurch, the birthplace of the suffrage movement.
There are altenatives to selling off the SOEs, so why not look at some other options?
My summertime reading has included David Lange’s autobiography My Life. Yep I know, it’s a few years old now, but being written on his deathbed made it candid. It’s a great insight into the man, running the country and at times is hilarious.
This post from the Law Commission looks at the Review of Regulatory Gaps and the New Media issues paper. Please feel free to join the discussion
Vladimir Putin awarded Russia election despite 1500 claims of fraud; protest movement to hold rally; China estimates 2012 growth at 7.5 per cent; World Bank says China can be world's largest economy by 2030; Tibetan widow and school girl set themselves on fire to protest Chinese rule; fake SWAT teams kill 27 Iraqi police officers; Khameni looks set to oust Ahmadinejad; Pakistan tests high accuracy missile; and more
Top of the Agenda: Putin Claims Victory Amid Allegations of Fraud
The government says it wants to balance green growth with digging holes, but can we do both? Perhaps we should slow down, rather than end up somewhere we don't want to be
Let's call a spade a spade. Or, at least, be frank about what the government hopes to do with its spade: It wants more mining and drilling in this country – more than most New Zealanders are comfortable with. And it wants to convince you and me that's a great idea. All this talk of "discourse" and "conversation" is all strategy.
Talkshow host Rush Limbaugh has 'apologised' for his vicious, personal attack on a university student who dared to argue the case for public funding of women's contraceptive health...but it was how he did it that says so much more about him and his Republican party devotees....
It is now very clear why Republican nominee wannabe Rick Santorum disparages President Obama’s hopes that all American kids can go to university.
It is because he wants American kids to be molded in the image of that blowhard at the heart of the Republican party - Rush Limbaugh.
Why is it that New Zealand's Supreme Court thinks that foreign law helps us know what our law should be?
Pretend you are a judge ... one who has worked your way up to sitting on New Zealand's highest court. And you have a case in front of you. It is a dispute between (at least) two parties, who want you to say what you think is the correct legal resolution to their conflict.
The Electoral Commission has to review six aspects of MMP (plus whatever else the public puts before it). Here's my thoughts on the first issue: the thresholds for representation in Parliament.
Of the issues that the Electoral Commission has to look at in its review of MMP, I predict the question of what threshold a party should have to attain before getting proportional representation in Parliament will be the most fraught.
An Iranian movie embraced by Hollywood no less, has poignancy for the sort of belligerence Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu are embroiled in...if only they could see what the Screen Actors Guild could.
It appears Hollywood knows a thing or two about unintended consequences...particularly when Iran is involved.
In awarding Iranian Asghar Farhadi’s ‘A Separation’ the little golden statue for best foreign film, it should have done so with a ‘must watch’ advisory to a couple highly combative politicians – Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Israel’s Netanyahu.
Why?
With most of the difficult policy changes made, it seems Australian PM Julia Gillard is now tidying house. Opponent Kevin Rudd is being swept to the backbenches to clear the path to the 2013 elections
I worked as a National Organiser for the Australia Labor Party during the Hawke years, when Kevin Rudd was a functionary in the office of the leader of the ALP in Queensland and Julia Gillard was the current or just departed president of the Australian Union of Students and active in the majority socialist left faction of the ALP in Victoria.
The latest opinion polls raise the prospect of a scenario that's new to modern New Zealand politics – the party that comes second leading the government. And it's something we need to front early
Two polls this week show support for National slipping, reinforcing my belief that not only has National missed out on any sort of honeymoon after November's election, but its popularity has likely peaked under John Key, never again to reach those heady days of 2009, or even late last year.
Greece gets its next bailout – but do the same problems remain? Greek debt to drop from 160% to 120.5% of GDP; Iran warns of pre-emptive strike is national interests threatened; Americans see Iran as 'top enemy'; Whole classrooms of school children forced to fight in Somalia; South Korea conducts provoctive military drill; Burma junta lifts campaigning restrictions; and more
Top of the Agenda: Eurozone Approves New Greek Bailout
The American economy must be on the improve, which explains why Republicans have entered the country's bedrooms in a desperate bid to demonise Obama as the destroyer of the constitutional right to freedom of religion. At least they are kidding themselves.
Just when Americans need strong political debate offering alternatives to Obama’s policies, the Republicans have locked themselves in the bedroom.
If the Greens thought the past three years were challenging, just wait for the next three. They – and Labour – need to figure out a new way of growing the centre-left bloc without tearing each other to pieces
If her speech is anything to go by, it was a confident and combative Metiria Turei who took to the stage at the Greens' policy conference in Palmerston North yesterday, looking over what the new Greens had created and declaring "it was very good". And why not?
Was “The Prime Minister’s Hour” on Radio Live a prohibited election programme? The Electoral Commission says “yes” – the Broadcasting Standards Authority says “no”. And the row needs to be resolved.
Broadcasting Standards Authority chair Peter Radich blames the Broadcasting Act. He says it is “old and open to interpretation” He is right on both counts – but wrong on the central issue raised in the row over Prime Minister John Key’s hour-long stint as a show host on Radio Live in the run-up to the last election.
Politicians have been arguing that black is white this week, showing that they're about as connected to reality as a two year-old chasing dragons
I've spent a lot of time with my two year-old son this summer, often in a rich, if exhausting, world of imagination. There are dragons, animal rescues, and more, but sometimes he worries that I'm not quite getting the game and he reassures me that "it's just 'tending Daddy".
National is caught on the wrong side of an argument it doesn't want to be having, because it's already busy losing another argument it doesn't want to be having. Know what I mean?
As I've just written in part one of this post, Justice Miller's decision on the Crafar Farms keeps the debate on overseas ownership alive a little longer and over-turns the prevailing wisdom in Wellington. But where does it leave the government?
Justice Miller put on his radical robes yesterday and turned the prevailing view of foreign investment on its head. So what does it mean for the overseas ownership debate and the Crafar Farms deal?
Privilege – that's what it's all about. You've got to earn it. The ruling by Justice Forrie Miller to set aside the government's decision to allow the sale of the Crafar Farms to Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin has turned on its head the political – and, it seems, legal – assumptions about foreign ownership of our most sensitive assets.
Greek austerity package doesn't go far enough, says head of eurozone finance ministers group; Joe Biden criticises China's Xi Jinping over human rights abuses, intellectual property theft and devalued currency; Iranians arrested and charged over attempted bomb attack in Bangkok; Pakistan's Musharraf accused of knowing Osama bin Laden's hideout; UN asks for aid access to Sudan; economy remains biggest US election issue; and more
Top of the Agenda: New Doubts Over Greek Bailout Deal
Suspicion that Iran is responsible for bomb attacks on Israeli embassies are no more - or less - credible than suspicion Israel has assassinated a number of Iran's top nuclear scientists. True or not, they should be pause for thought, not cause for war.
It is no surprise at all that Israel has blamed Iran for the bombs targeting Israeli embassies in New Delhi and Georgia.
Where it does become difficult is assessing whether Israel will consider suspicion of Iran as casus belli for launching its desperately wanted attack on the nascent nuclear state.
I wrote a book! (I know, I am as surprised as you...) Casey Plunket from Chapman Tripp says parts of it suck. I say otherwise.
Late last year, the Institute of Policy Studies published my book about tax in New Zealand.
Now that the rather pointless referendum on keeping MMP is over and done with, the real work starts. You have to play your part, too.
We all know that Pundit readers are the best, most informed, wisest and subscribe to the highest possible standards of personal hygiene in the entire blogosphere.
(Yeah, Kiwipolitico ... I'm looking at you and asking when you last cleaned under your fingernails?)
Dozens killed in sixth day of Homs crackdown; Arab League to return to Syria, perhaps with UN observers; Analysis – so what should be done with Syria?; Greeks government parties reach austerity deal, EU ministers meeting to discuss; Israel and US disgree on Iran threat; Amensty claims Russia & China breaking arms embargo in Darfur; Further improvements in Burma?; and more
Top of the Agenda: Syrian Forces Bombard Homs for Sixth Day
Iwi may be steaming over the Government’s plans to convert State-owned enterprises into “Mixed Ownership” businesses - but so will the country’s “Mum and Dad” investors when they find out what the iwi are being told.
Everyone should read the iwi consultation paper on the Governnent’s plan to convert the four energy sector State-owned enterprises into “Mixed Ownership” businesses with 49% of their shares in private hands.
Putting the Prime Minister on the radio for an hour to show listeners what a nice guy he is "appears to encourage or persuade voters to vote for a political party or the election of any person at an election". Who'd a thunk it?
Just a very quick note on the Electoral Commission's decision to refer the "Prime Minister's Hour" on Radio Live to the Police as a potential breach of the Broadcasting Act.
Seeing as no-one really seems to know what is happening in the US Republican nomination race, I thought I'd chip in my $5 million Super PAC worth of thoughts.
So a couple of weeks ago I was pontificating away on National Radio's "On the Radar" slot about this, that and the other thing.
Yet again parents are coddled to within an inch of plausability, this time over breastfeeding
Good grief. Piri Weepu is shown bottle-feeding his six-month-old daughter Taylor on an anti-smoking ad, and somehow this image of nurturing and positive fathering is construed as an attack on breastfeeding. As my nearly-three-year-old would say, "What?!"
Another national day, another chance for us to feel out who we are as New Zealanders. And another day of protest. But those who condemn the protests should stop whining and stop to think what really matters to us as a nation
As the sun sets on another Waitangi Day, I want to offers three cheers – one for Prime Minister John Key, one for the Waitangi protesters and one for all New Zealanders who got out and enjoyed themselves.
Treasury's advice to Bill English is nothing if not clear – it's time to cut. So does its briefing to the incoming minister make its case? Or rather miss the point entirely? What do you think...
Reading a Treasury briefing can be a morbid experience; they are the bureaucratic embodiment of cynicism, seeing the price of everything and the value of nothing. The latest offering to the incoming minister makes you wonder whether the word "invest" is simply too long for the Treasury analysts, so they fall back on a nice short one – "cut".
Russia and China are being held morally responsible for allowing the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad to continue the slaughter of its own people. By vetoing a Security Council resolution, they have been accused of handing Assad a licence to kill.
Diplomacy failed spectacularly at the United Nations this weekend.
Now Russia and China have pinned their colours to saving Bashar al-Assad, their UN Security Council vetoes have also emboldened the Syrian dictator.
In effect Assad has been given a licence to kill.
Diplomacy is failing Syrians as Russia rejects the latest UN Security Council draft resoltuion aimed at stopping al-Assad's brutal crackdown on his own people. Russia's threat of veto is within UN rules, but a rising Syrian death toll is a consequence that's tough to justify.
While the United Nations Security Council panders to Russia’s demands over what it will and will not permit be done with Syria, the killing squads of Bashar al-Assad systematically get on with the job of eliminating those who dare to question the regime.
New battle-lines are being drawn between New Zealand’s major free-to-air television networks and NZ On Air as the networks seek more State support for “commercially attractive” local programmes.
A fresh release of documents obtained under the Official Information Act highlight the tension between the public service obligations of funding agency NZ On Air and the commercial imperatives now driving our two major television networks.
Is John Key being advised by Auckland law graduates?
I suspect the sudden threat by the Maori Party to "reconsider its relationship with National" if partialy-privatised (sorry ...
Canada's justice system has confirmed (again) that there is no such thing as an 'honour killing', but (again) rejection of this twisted, controlling, patriachal notion of honour comes way too late for the latest four victims...all from one immigrant family.
The three month-long trial of a Montreal man, his second wife and his son has finally ended with the Afghanistan-born trio being found guilty of murdering three of the family’s girls and the first wife.
The Crafar farms sale is a canny deal with undoubted benefits for New Zealand. So why the fuss? Because each sale of productive land offshore raises questions about our future economically and as Kiwis
Anyone at all surprised by the sale of the 16 Crafar Farms to Shanghai Pengxin? Thought not. It was utterly predictable for two reasons – 1) that company offered far and away the most money and 2) the company offers export opportunities into China at a juncture in history New Zealand when we stand or fall on our ability to sell protein to that country.
Chrischurch City Council CEO Tony Maryatt gets a 14% pay rise to $540,000 when people are still using toilets in the street? Where's the spirit of the blitz? Because true leadership speaks of sacrifice
From a distance, Canterbury politics look as swampy as the land the city is built on. Environment Canterbury argued for so many years about a plan for its own water supply that it was taken over by government. Now, Christchurch City Council's incredibly clumsy support for a pay rise for its CEO is prompting complaints about dysfunction and disunity.
In which you give us your name and address and we perhaps give you a great day out on Monday, January 30
It's running late, so this is probably, really, kinda only for people in Auckland and surrounds... But if you and a friend like to go to the Laneway Festival on Monday (Akld anniversary) and don't want to spend $127 per ticket, we've got two pairs of tickets to give away (that's four tickets, folks).
The Taliban are planning to set up shop in Qatar – but in a good way. They'll have a physical address that could open the door to serious peace talks on Afghanistan and spark hopes of future stability
In the long, miserable story of what was once called "the war on terror", it's hard to identify turning points. Since the foolhardy US invasion of Afghanistan in particular, it's been hard to find many gems of hope in that trash-heap of a war – until this month, that is.
In which the author seeks to have the New Zealand legal community do his job for him.
I've been asked by a colleague at an overseas law school to contribute to a special issue of their journal. The topic for the issue is: "The worst decision by a nation's top court of the last 25 years."
NZ on Air wants to stop people thinking they are biased in a partisan way. So why are they being accused of acting in a way that shows partisan bias?
Over on Scoop, Tom Frewen has done a commendable bit of digging into NZ on Air's response to TV3's decision to screen the documentary "Inside Child Poverty" – a NZ on Air funded documentary highly critical of successive governments' policy on the issue – 4 d
The debate over TV3's scheduling of Inside Child Poverty should prompt us to get back to some pretty basic core principles surrounding independence
Scoop yesterday lived up to its name and revealed New Zealand on Air minutes showing that the government's broadcasting funding agency is, in journalist Tom Frewen's words, considering "a move to censor television programmes likely to embarrass the government dur
In which the government invites anyone who can pay enough into our offshore marine environment. The Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Bill does not "protect and preserve" the environment. It states its price
TAG Oil is very excited. It wants to turn the East Coast of the North Island – “literally leaking oil and gas”!! – into the “Texas of the south”, hosting thousands of oil wells.
So Destiny Church has finally found a new home. But is that any reason we should help fund it? On the other hand, if other faiths get a go, why not them?
The Destiny Church's plan to build a new "city" in Wiri, South Auckland is following what's become a tried and true path for any stories involving Brian Tamaki's controversial movement – Tamaki utters hyperbole aimed at believers, media report said hyperbole to wider audience, a
Bashar al-Assad lashes out at Arab League in rare TV address, refuses to step down; Arab League key to getting Syria sanctions through UN; Aung San Suu Kyi to run for parliament in Burmese elections; China and South Korea agree aim of "denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula"; Greece pressured to settle private debt deals or miss EU bailout; Iran's latest uranium enrichment is "further escalation" says US; and more
Top of the Agenda: Assad Criticizes Arab League
Amongst the news of crashes and weather, one story of immense significance to New Zealand has been widely ignored... The US has reviewed its defence priorities and is moving back into our neighbourhood big-time. This offers huge risks and opportunities
At the start of President Obama's first term there was talk of him being the first "Pacific President" – being born in Hawaii and schooled in Indonesia gave him a rare westward view of the world, a perspective that's different from the focus on Europe and the Middle-East, which dominates on America's east coast.
John Key’s hottest line from the last election campaign could come back to haunt him as he ploughs ahead with the expansion of the “Mixed Ownership Model” by selling shares in a batch of state-owned assets.
The new National-led Government delivered a fine present as it shut down for Christmas – a big dump of official documents on its plans to extend what it calls the “Mixed Ownership Model”. The Sale of the Century is scheduled to start in the third quarter this year and continue all the way through to next election in 2014.
The election may be ancient history by now, but the controversy over the recorded conversation between John Key and John Banks is still brewing away. See what I did there?
Given that the misnamed "tea tapes" (I guess "tea digitally recorded conversation" is a bit much of a mouthful) was one of the two most important things to ha
On December 30 I wrote a draft of this for myself. I was not going to post it. This changed my mind: The Joy of Quiet, published the same day in the New York Times
Today, 38 years too late, I grasped an important fact. I seem to be living on some sort of a different planet. I am here in body (more or less, depending) but somewhere else, in my soul.
The death of Stratos Television last week is a sad, bad story – and we have not seen the end of it.
At 11:00am on Friday, 23 December, Stratos Television vanished quietly from the programme menus offered by the Sky, Freeview, and Telstra Clear distribution networks.
Wrapping up this year and looking ahead a bit to the next
The year's winding right down now, and thanks the stars 2011 is over. Happy to see it go by. Eleanor and I are off for a few days at the beach before our second child is due.
The other pundits are all able to post if they can muster the energy – thanks for your work today Mike! But I imagine it'll be meagre bloggy rations here at Pundit for the next week or so.
Labour failed to learn National's lesson from 2002 and paid the price, so it's now time for the party to get start selling Brand Shearer
A wise old mate once told me that if you want to understand any industry, enterprise or activity, just do the worst job it has to offer. There can't be any worse job in politics than being a scrutineer at a recount where your candidate slowly, vote by miscounted vote, loses a tenuous hold on an electorate.
Arab League observers met by protesters in Homs as Syrian peace deal begins; At least 30 killed in clashes the day before (+ analysis); North Korea calls for for economic investment; World leaders label Nigeria Christmas bombings "cowardly" and "senseless"; More Russian protests draw out Putin; Brazil's economy now bigger than Britain's; and more
Top of the Agenda: Arab Monitors in Syria
Lookee here, Santa has come early for all those boys and girls in parliament. So what did he bring the politicians? Did they get what they wanted – and what they deserved? Let's sneak a cheeky peak
Just two sleeps until Christmas. Can you hear the sleigh bells? So what's underneath the political Christmas tree this year? I know, they haven't all been good boy and girls, but let's just assume they all deserve something for their dedicated public service.
How New Zealand is protecting its next generation clearly isn't working. Norm Hewitt, former All Black-turned-children's champion, is urging all New Zealanders to "say something" on the Green Paper for Vulnerable Children, and change the end of the story for 160,000 at-risk Kiwi kids
It’s almost New Year, and so 2011 is over. It’s been a tough year for our children, our tamariki, with several appalling cases of child abuse in the headlines.
The Occupy Dunedin camp has folded. Now a judge has told Auckland's version to do the same. So it goes.
The "Occupy Aotearoa" movement (if it ever really deserved such a grand title) looks to be dwindling away to nothing. Yesterday, the last few tents were taken down in Dunedin's Octagon, as the protest members decided to vacate the area to allow for unimpeded Christmas and New Years celebrations.
All of the government’s signs are pointing the same way: relocating conservation and the Department of Conservation within the “natural resources” sector, the better to “streamline and simplify” its activities
Last year we learned that the Conservation Minister and the Energy and Resources Minister would both decide about giving access to conservation land for mining. One has an interest in the minerals beneath, the other in the land and the creatures who live there, on behalf of us: the public, the land holders.
The election is over, so the work begins. Labour has its new face in David Shearer, but now has a mountain to climb to win 5-10% of National's voters over to its side (and a few back from the Greens). So how does it do that?
Labour's choice of David Shearer as the party's new leader represents a fair bit of gauntlet and a hell of a gamble. The gamble is obvious – you have to go back to founder Harry Holland in 1919 to find Labour choosing a leader with less parliamentary experience.
In preference to weeping, I try to count conservation blessings, and plan my new career as a lobbyist
Although a National government has been returned, in a way Kiwis did “vote for Nature” as Forest & Bird's election campaign asked. The prospects for Nature in the next three years are bleak, but all is not lost. A battle or two might be won by lobbying.
With the specials about to be announced, what are the ramifications for the new government? And what's likely to happen next?
Won't tomorrow be fun? It's like election day all over again. Except National may not enjoy this one as much as two weeks ago.
Yes, the specials are confirmed tomorrow and the final shape of parliament will be known. Plus, the small matter of our electoral system will be decided.
Area men, women panic as Key, Banks unveil December surprise.
Charter schools are coming. Should we be concerned? I think there are some reasons to be cautious about charter schools, but they are not the reasons that have dominated the New Zealand commentariat.
"Charter schools will only select great students"
The global green change needed is desperately urgent. Paradoxically, the fastest and best way to achieve it locally might be more tortoise than hare
The Greens have made a feature out of slow, but steady, organic growth.
Having entered Parliament in the Alliance, gained independence in 1999 with an electorate win in Coromandel, maintained (sometimes precariously) a core vote above the 5 percent threshold, the party has now elected two new co-leaders and sworn in a whole second generation of MPs.
This year's National-ACT supply and confidence deal goes futher than the previous one, prompting a lot of indignant questions about ideology, economic management and choice... and a few examples of hypocrisy
Is that the whiff of ideology in the wind? The National-ACT supply and confidence deal will lead John Key's second term government off the first term's more pragmatic road and down some very rocky by-ways indeed.
The battle for the Labour leadership was first waged in caucus (Shearer), then on TV (Cunliffe). This week it moves to the regions as remains tight. So who does John Key fear most? And why do I keep thinking of Obama & Clinton?
The Labour leadership race is closer than is being spun, in part because Phil Goff's people still have their hands on the spin levers and Goff is backing David Shearer. As in any election, this race will come down to the undecideds.
Iran's hurtling towards being a diplomatic outcast raises cause for serious concern about what is really going on within the country politically, and the impact domestic tensions are having on furthering Iran's nuclear arms ambitions and consequently, its dangerous isolationism.
It is very difficult to believe that the attack on the British Embassy in Tehran was a spontaneous act by a group of young men who suddenly decided to teach the Brits a lesson for ratcheting up sanctions against the nascent nuclear state.
In which I try explaining why the Greens are neither left nor right, why they never have been, and why that is important to their future and ours
The Greens will never be an environment party, and have never been a left-wing party. The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand is neither left nor right because that is what their charter says, what their policy shows, and what the existential global challenge, that is their raison d’etre, requires.
Central banks are trying to get money moving again, but it could all be too little, too late for Europe as the final countdown begins (not as cool as Andrew's musical references, but see what I did there children of the '80s?)
In the Matrix films you get a sense of deja vu when the machines controlling your experience of the world change something. In real life, you get the uncanny sense that you've said and done exactly the same things before as the powers-that-be refuse to change.
The news declared that the National Party had had a 'historic' election victory on Saturday but, if that was true, National Party people would be looking happier. The reality is much more complicated
Here's the bullet-point version, to begin:
So the names for the Labour leadership are now in the hat. The caucus has a decent buffet to choose from, but need to remember it's not all about them
It's hard to know what to say about Labour's leadership tussle. There's a logic inside the beltway and even inside the caucus room that doesn't always translate to the rest of the country. But it's the rest of the country the caucus needs to keep front of mind.
The Greens’ vibe has changed, but have they lost grip on values with a small and large V? For all the strengths and wins of the 2011 election campaign, it also failed
My new theory of the Greens is recycled. The new thing is the old thing, really.
In 2011 we changed some things, and won some votes: not a world-changing number of votes, but a historic number, enough for some more Green growth.
Get the latest election information as it becomes available, without having to watch the box
Tonight Scoop allows you to track each electorate as the votes roll in, with their Election Map designed by Keith Ng. Cleverly, you can also compare tonight's results to 2008. Hours of fun to be had.
Happy election night!
So no comments today please. Let democracy take it's course
Let's take a look at the seats you might want to take a look at tomorrow night
It's MMP and it's all about the party vote, of course. But this election a bunch of electorate seats actually look really interesting. And it's not just the obvious ones.
The stand-out two are Epsom and Ohariu because entire parties - and coalition partners for National - depend on them. Can ACT and United Future, respectively, stay alive?
Only hours to go, so let's take a run through all the parties and see where we stand. You've got to say, there are a lot of known unknowns
Well, it's nearly here. A short and sharp campaign that, regardless of the result, has changed the policy landscape for the next election or three and intensified the 2014 race. Let's run through what we've learnt since the All Blacks won the World Cup.
Five more polls this week. Four today. Little change. National can govern alone. Winston will not make it (but it could be close).
Five new polls have come out since we last updated our poll of polls. Four of them came in the last 24 hours. Together, they show National continuing to be able to govern alone, according to our latest estimates (available on the left hand side of the pundit front page). We estimate National will win 52% of the vote tomorrow, giving them 67 seats.
Well ... by "revolution", I mean the election results. And by "televised", I mean livestreamed on the internet. But ... exciting!
Bryce Edwards teaches over at the Politics Department here at Otago. It would be fair to say that he's been somewhat active in commentating on this election campaign.
Picking winners in the Maori electorates isn't an easy game. The Pundits are sometimes guilty of picking the losing horse and the polls tend to do no better. Today guest Pundit Morgan Godfery offers his picks in the Maori seats
With only a few days left until polling day I thought I’d give you a run down on my picks for the Maori seats. Some of the most interesting battles are happening in the Maori seats, or so I think anyway, and the ramifications of a Maori Party win or a Mana Movement win are significant.
The Conservatives a laid a platform for 2014 this campaign, coming from nowhere to be a polling party. It won't be an easy road ahead for them - or National, as its potential partner
It's been tough being Conservative this campaign. With a capital C that is. Being conservative is de rigueur this election. But the nascent party being built with Colin Craig's millions has had a tough time getting attention.
Fear and greed may be the motivating emotions in the market place, but information is the life-blood of democracy. The voters of 2011 need a transfusion before they visit the polling booth on Saturday.
At this very late stage of the campaign, the biggest fear of every political party has to be a low turnout.
Phil Goff took over as interviewer at times and generated the news headlines in tonight's final TV debate. But a measured John Key stood firm and calm as he rammed home his anti-debt message
Phil Goff had the details and the studio craft, but after a nervous start John Key had the authority. It's one of the things that a Prime Minister gains simply by going into work every day - and Key got the tone right to edge Goff in tonight's debate. Not that the legacy of his night's work won't have ramifications.
The court has decided not to decide whether Bradley Ambrose's taping was legal - and that's all it has done.
So Bradley Ambrose has failed to get his declaration in the High Court that the "cup of tea" conversation between John Key and John Banks was not a "private communication".
Just days before Egypt's first truly democratic elections since the ouster of Mubarak, the interim ruling generals have exposed their self-interest, and responded to the resulting protests by firing on the very people who considered them heroes just nine months ago.
Egyptians sure are learning the hard way that their military, which only nine months ago proclaimed itself to be ‘of the people’ is really ‘of itself’ and lead by a brassed-up Mubarak sans the charisma.
Goff got a Labour-friendly debate and Key a National-friendly panel on tonight's TV3 leaders' debate. Given voters' low expectations of the Labour leader, it was his night as the worm ate him up with a spoon
For me, Goff won three of the four segments, but Key finished strongest; Goff won on policy, Key won on coalitions.That's my call on the TV3 debate this evening.
National is going after Winston Peters with all guns blazing. This must mean that they really are scared of him ... right?
The start of the last week of the campaign seems to have moved on from Teapot-not-quite-gate to "what about Winston?" ... and more particularly, "what happens if he is back in Parliament?" ... and even more particularly, "what happens if he is back in Parliament and holds the balance of power?"
In the final week of the election campaign, it's all about set-pieces, especially on television. Can the main leaders keep their heads and hit their marks as the pressure hits fever pitch?
Five days to go and the stages have been set; the only question left is how the leaders will handle their lines.
What do we know about how the campaign will evolve over the next few days? Quite a lot already, as it happens.
Despite some excitement in individual polls, the polls as a whole show National still well above 50%, and New Zealand First still a long way below 5%.
There have been four polls published since we updated the Poll of Polls last Monday. Our updated estimates show continuing trends against National and Labour (each of whom drop about half a point this week), and in favour of the Greens (who gain most of a point). We now estimate the Greens at almost 11% support and climbing.
The tea tape is making even sensible people like David Farrar say some pretty silly things. Lucky I'm here to put him back on course.
Despite the various calls to "move on" from Teapot-not-quite-gate, it's still bubbling away (see what I did there?) And it's producing some strange reactions in people who normally you can rely on to be sane and sensible in a crisis.
Little more than a week out, National is still holding a majority in the polls. It's time to talk about what it means if that's how it winds up on election night
So, let's just say it out loud, shall we? What do you think about National governing alone? Well, not precisely alone because they will wear a fig leaf of coalition deals with United Future, the Maori Party and perhaps ACT, if voters permit. But what do New Zealanders think about the prospect of having a single party having a majority of votes in the House?
It took the Labour Party an age to release its Maori policy statement, but the wait may have been worth it. Guest Pundit Morgan Godfery discusses Labour's risky move
With the tea tapes dominating political discussion at the moment, you’re forgiven if you find this post a little bland. I’m going to deal with a dry topic – Maori policy.
The police "seizing" material from the news media isn't that big a deal. [Update: except for the bit that is ...]
Just a very quick post on what I think the Police are up to in serving search warrants on news organisations for material relating to "Teapotgate" (there you go, Steven Price).
John Key's famous cup of tea is at risk of leaving a sour taste as the story drags on and public opinion turns. But what does it mean for the election?
The teapot tape fuss seems to have turned in the past 24 hours; not in John Key's favour and not entirely due to anything he's done wrong.
At least 70 killed in latest Syrian protests; Arab League to suspend Syria, despite foreign minister warning against "dangerous step"; Italy bond yields again top 7%; Gillard wants to sell uranium to India; Calls for Burmese political prisoners to be released; Libyan tribal tensions grow after Qaddafi; and more
Top of the Agenda: Syrian Security Forces Clash with Opposition
John Key's decision to speak out against MMP smells of partisan greed and hubris. It also raises questions for women, Asian and Pasifika voters and about what his tactics have been all along
I was staggered to hear on television Prime Minister John Key say that although he was "not entirely unhappy" with MMP, he intended to vote for change. The PM said while he likes proportionality, he "slightly prefers the characteristics of Supplementary Member (SM)".
Natural and international disasters have absolved National of the usual competency tests, but do New Zealanders really want a single party majority government?
As polls continue to show National postioned to govern alone just two weeks out from the election, voters are going to have to confront a stark choice. Do they want any government, let alone this one, to govern on its own.
Here's my suggestion to politicians. If you want to plot the takeover of the world without people finding out about it, don't do it in a Newmarket Cafe.
For what was meant to be a short photo-op designed to remind the good folk of Epsom of their duty to Party and Nation, the cup of tea between John Key and John Banks has all turned a bit Alice in Wonderland.
Some changes in our Poll of Polls in the last two weeks, but nothing (repeat: nothing) likely to change the game.
There have been eight polls released since we last updated the Poll of Polls two weeks ago. Eight! In those eight polls, each making estimates of seven or more parties’ support, there are always likely to be a couple of outliers. The biggest of those, of course, was Roy Morgan’s 4.5% estimate for New Zealand First.
Italian bond yields have risen above the critical seven percent mark. So where does this leave Italy and what can the rest of Europe do?
I don't think the CNBC team in Rome would mind me telling you that they're knackered. (A bit like Roman politics? - Ed).
Winston Peters wins the oxygen of media attention and gets back in the game. But do we really want him back? Or has his time passed?
Is Winston Peters the luckiest main in New Zealand right now?
He should make sure he buys a lotto ticket this weekend, because lady luck has settled on his shoulder.
A pre-emptive strike on Iran will blow apart the Middle East, and Israel will suffer long and hard. Don't do it.
The world’s nuclear watchdog report arguing “credible proof” Iran might be capable of producing a nuclear warhead has sparked dangerous chat of a military pre-emptive strike to take out the Ayatollah’s baby.
The Epsom candidates' debate last night drew out the bizarreness of a race where the frontrunner would rather lose and the ACT candidate is rallying behind the leader of another party. At least the unacknowledged presence in this race was finally discussed by name
It had all the fun a candidates debate should: ACT's John Banks said Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia - enemies on most policies - were high quality MPs and a great ad for MMP; Davia Parker said Labour should have introduced a capital gains tax when last in power, but was not brave enough; Paul Goldsmith said it was tough to be a man and wanted to be a man's MP; Green David Hay sang a Dear John
It hasn't been the most scintillating of election campaigns, but is it really necessary to rate the sex appeal of our politicians in an effort to enliven proceedings?
When David Farrar asked the question on Facebook, "Should a journalism school be asking the question of its students, 'what politician would they most like to fuck'," I thought he was kidding. But the link he provided backed up the poser.
Wanna put questions to John Banks or Paula Bennett? Sue Bradford or David Parker? Tonight's your chance
If you're in Auckland tonight, there are two candidates' debates worth stepping out for on opposite sides of town.
I'll be hosting an Epsom candidates' debate at Somervell Presbyterian on the cnr of Remuera Rd and Greenlane East tonight from 7.30pm. All the candidates will be there and taking questions from the floor.
The Greens' success could be down to Labour's struggles or a sign of the times. But it could also be down to a carefully crafted game plan that seems to be pushing all the right buttons
As the days roll by and the Greens retain their giddy, double-digit heights in the polls, it's time to wonder whether the perennial underperformers have finally cracked it and convinced a new cohort of voters that the party can be trusted with their vote.
Dunedin's police will not be moving to evict the Occupy Dunedin protest. Good on Dunedin's police.
I don't often get things right. I thought the All Blacks would put 20 points or more on the French in the Rugby World Cup 2011 (TM) final. I predicted Alpha Plan would be the next U2 - and if you don't know who I mean, you weren't there, man.
Organisation will be key to winning the Maori seat on the Auckland isthmus. But guest Pundit Morgan Godfery says even Labour's well-oiled turn-out machine will find Pita Sharples tough to topple
Shane Jones knows it's do or die in Tamaki Makaurau. A win equals redemption; a loss spells the end of his career.
If you know someone very well might do a bad thing in the future, then why wait until they do it before punishing them?
Here's one of those moral-dilemma situations that get put to philosophy 101 students to illustrate the variety of forms of moral reasoning. You've got a group of (say) five people who have almost served their jail sentences for a crime.
Even if you think it's smart to stimulate the sharemarket and create some capital, is it the right time to sell portions of our state assets? It's a telling question and you'll be surprised who asked it
Voters don't like it, don't want it, but the polls say they'll most likely go along with it – National's plan to sell off chunks of five state assets.
National aggressively points the finger at Labour while admitting $2.6b in mistakes under its breath.
Did you enjoy your weekend of dorky people with dueling fiscal spreadsheets and confused reporters trying to play umpire? Me neither. The latest as at 5:46pm Sunday is that National has another, newer spreadsheet, which says the cost of Labour’s policies is $15.6b.
The Dunedin City Council has tired of the Occupy Dunedin protest and wants it gone. So why is it still there?
The Occupy [Insert Place Name Here] protest movement has sparked a whole lot of head scratching "but what does it all mean?" analysis, without yet reaching any widely accepted conclusions.
It's his way or the highway for Winston Peters, after a speech today ruling New Zealand First out of government. Either the disgruntled rally to his flag or he's history
That may be the sound of the door slamming on Labour's vain election hopes. Winston Peters has just announced that he won't enter a government with anyone after this election. Not National or Labour. Or the cat's mother, for that matter. To quote his speech:
The “show me the money” costings war is a credibility test for both John Key and Phil Goff
Phil Goff says he will “show John the money” today, providing Labour’s costings for its various policies. He says he will borrow about $2.6b more than National over the first three years.
National is still defying gravity in the first polls of the campaign proper. But there are talking points emerging on the right and potential decisions looming for John Key
Ok, two polls late today, but one clear message. While the green shoots of spring are popping up around the country, it's still winter in Labour-land. While the party can't have expected a serious swing so soon, it must feel as if someone has just burst its balloon. It would have hoped for some sign of change.
TVNZ 7 will end in June 2012 when its funding runs out. This will make NZ the only developed country without a Public Service Broadcaster, but it doesn't have to be this way
New Zealand’s only dedicated public service television channel, TVNZ 7, will cease in 2012. The government has chosen to discontinue it’s funding.
Is National really what it seems on welfare reform? I don't know about you, but I'm getting really mixed messages. I'm also not sure the second child/one year policy will survive the election
So National's welfare policy is out. I'm not in a position to piece together much analysis, but here are some pointed thoughts:
The US hissy fit punishment of UNESCO for its recognition of Palestine makes even more of a mockery of America's continuing role in Middle East peace negotiations.
UNESCO’s vote to recognise Palestine is gutsy on the part of the UN body, symbolic yet encouraging for the Palestinians and very revealing with respect to the lip service paid to democracy by the United States and those who cling to its increasingly shredded skirts.
Greek PM promises referendum on bailout, putting EU on edge; Global markets drop sharply on news; MPs walk out on Greek government, new election likely (+ analysis); Libya's NTC chooses engineer as new PM; Taliban claims it set Kandahar bomb that killed seven; US slams UNESCO on Palestine vote; China launches spacecraft; and more
Top of the Agenda: Greek Referendum Complicates Euro Rescue
How much breeding counts as “breeding for a business?” And what’s in a “work requirement?” The answers may surprise.
National released its new welfare policies yesterday, to a chorus of approval from the Get Tough brigade. The speeches were their style! Hiding in the actual policy, however, are some pretty odd policy choices. Here are two:
Breeding for a business
Consider these two families:
In an exclusive interview with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, a glimpse of how far Europe still has to go to purge its demons
I'll let you in on a secret. Jean-Claude Trichet is considered something of a heart-throb in the CNBC newsroom in London. To which some of you might say, Jean-Claude who? I'm not talking about the 'Muscles from Brussels', Jean-Claude van Damme; this Jean-Claude is more like the 'Neon from Lyon', if you'll excuse the stretch.
Remember the Bush-Gore debates in 2000? We may see the same thing in NZ with the 2011 Election debates. Goff would have surpassed the expectations of many, but that doesn't necessarily win elections
I'm suprised by the commentators who have talked about John Key winning last nights One News Election debate. It's true that there were no killing blows and on points of substance the Prime Minister often seemed more authoritative. Thing is, that's not what people takeaway from a debate such as this.
Reid Research runs a good poll. Pity TV3’s reporting of it doesn't match.
Duncan Garner’s report on TV3’s latest poll was poorly done. I usually think our TV political journos do a reasonable job despite their lack of familiarity with the statistical concepts they are reporting on. Not today.
A question to Q+A about those welfare bludgers emphasises why the conversation about superannuation reform is so vital... but also comes with risk
I wrote this post for TVNZ yesterday, but wanted to share all of it with Pundit readers, because it's something we've discussed more than once and several of you have really helped me get my head around this... It's why superannuation matters, how it's perceived as the "good welfare" and how the real problem we face is from the "bad welfare". Anyway, here 'tis:
The opening addresses for three of the political parties were on TV tonight. So how did they sound on the radio?
For the past few months I've been living without TV. Actually, there is a TV upstairs, attached to a DVD player that plays box-sets of shows like Treme and Luther. And teh interwebz brings me all sorts of contemporary programmes direct to my computer screen (all sourced, I hasten to note, from legitimate websites that in no way involve any form of copyright infringement).
Contributions to the Super Fund have been suspended since 2009, until the country is back in the black. But does the logic behind that decision make any sense at all?
Amongst Labour's ground-breaking announcement that it will campaign on raising the retirement age and introducing compulsory Super, another major decision got little attention.
The Opposition says it will also kick-start government contributions to the New Zealand Super Fund, which were suspended by National in 2009.
EU leaders reach deal on debt crisis--Asian and European markets rise as a result; Angela Merkel is getting credit for her calm approach to the crisis; US says there is no indication North Korea is serious about ending nuclear weapons programme; Qaddafi's fugitive son gives himself up, asks for flight to The Hague; World Bank offers Peru $3 billion to sustain economic growth; Ireland holds presidential election; and more
Top of the Agenda: EU Leaders Reach Deal on Debt Crisis
Labour's big bang campaign strategy is high risk... But is there a bigger plan at play here?
Timing is everything. Whether it comes down to the woman of your dreams, the perfect job or when you get into the All Blacks, timing is of the essence. It's the same in politics.
And Labour is rolling the dice when it comes to the timing of its policy announcements and campaign strategy.
National wants to deny prisoners the right to any compensation whilst behind bars, but a shameful attack in 1993 raises questions about the messages such a law sends
When Simon Power tabled his Prisoners' and Victims' Claims Amendment Bill on October 13, it brought to mind one of the most shameful incidents of the New Zealand prison system.
Through the looking glass with ACT’s Stephen Whittington, to a world where rich folk form a political party that exists only to help poor folk.
ACT’s future looks bleak this year under the leadership of Don “I’ll just leave the country for a week in the middle of my election campaign” Brash and John “not quite a Lazarus of Epsom” Banks.
What do the anti-capitalist protesters in London actually want? They compare themselves to the Arab Spring, but it all sounds a bit vague
It’s getting colder in London. We had a lingering summer, but that is over. Not such a great time to be on the streets for any longer than you have to.The central heating goes on and the thick duvet is very welcome.
Defence Minister Wayne Mapp flunked his final Afghan Torture Test last Friday when he slid the long awaited New Zealand Defence Force Report on detainee treatment into the public domain under the cover of the Grand Final of the Rugby World Cup.
If you want to try and bury bad news around Parliament, release it on the Friday before a holiday weekend.
Rugby World Cup 2011 has been a blast, reminding ourselves how good we can be. And being at Eden Park from 7am on the day of the final is a very special memory
I've just come from Eden Park on the morning of the Rugby World Cup final, and I've got to say it was a treat to be there in the silence and calm, knowing that in 12 hours the place will be a cauldron of hope, nerves and excitement.
The revolutionary who turned mad and bad, has, after eight months been stopped in his tracks – literally. Everyday Libyan citizens who fought for freedom from tyranny, now have their chance. Their challenges however, are massive
The guys who went to war in their family cars have won. They have liberated Libya, with a good deal of NATO help, and are their nation’s heroes.
What educationalists in New Zealand can learn from newspapers in Los Angeles.
The Los Angeles Times has produced a detailed set of estimates about how much value each teacher in Los Angeles adds to their classroom. That is hugely valuable information. New Zealand’s education establishment should be doing something similar.
Small business owners join workers as strikes shutdown Greece; EU leaders to announce expanded rescue fund (+ analysis); Moody's downgrades "vulnerable" Spain by two notches; Turks strike back after Kurdish rebels kill 26 troops; IMF picks six percent growth in sub-Saharan Africa; Chinese scientist admits stealing trade secrets; and more
Top of the Agenda: Greek Workers Go on Strike
National, Labour, the Greens and ACT have all set out on different routes to victory in the country's toriest seat. The billboards dotted around the electorate lay the strategies bare
A drive around the Epsom electorate is a study in campaign strategy. Here, the machinations of the country's best political minds are painted in vivid colour.
At last, some major policy announcements. And not just any old BPAs, but arguably the biggest ones of all -- savings and wages. Two sides of the same indebted coin and at the heart of building a prosperous New Zealand
It's the day of the 'big policy announcements' (BPAs). The major parties at least must be confident of an All Blacks victory, as they both seem to have decided that we're capable of ignoring the rugby for a few minutes at least.
We're too dependent on our phones, right? Obsessed. But when you're cut off, all you can do is spend all that down-time coming up with conspiracy theories. As BlackBerry has found out after its (almost) worldwide outage
A slight clammy feeling. General anxiety. A sense that something is missing or out of place. Heightened frustration or even distress.
Is the government responsible for the Rena disaster? Is it to blame? Does it matter?
Since the Rena ran aground and began spilling oil and other nastiness into the Bay of Plenty, there has been a lot of finger pointing at the government. Was it prepared? Was the response too slow to get going? Was the response good enough?
If torturing a prisoner will lead to more money for victims of crime, then isn't that a good thing to have happen?
The other week, Justice Minister Simon Power gave a fantastic valedictory speech to the House. It capped off a lot of good things that he has done - in particular, I admire how he has handled the issue of changes to electoral finance rules and setting up the referendum on MMP.
We're under attack, but we are doing all we can to put up some walls. Still, I'm taking bets on how long it'll be before some spammer adds a comment to this post...
Pundit friends,
You will have notice that recently we've become the the focus of a deluge of spam. We are working on this, and I'm really sorry to you all that you're having to suffer this. Sorry again.
Still, could be worse... At least you haven't spent half the evening deleting hundreds of fake member accounts from the past two months, as I have!
"Everyone has the right to freedom of expression, including the freedom to seek, receive, and impart information and opinions of any kind in any form." Discuss.
A couple of "free speech" issues have arisen in the last week - one a bit ho-hum, the other somewhat more serious.
It's been a bad week for the government and good for the Greens. Is the luck of the parties turning?
But is it enough to change the campaign trajectory? That's the question around what's turned into a dire week for the National Party.
Labour, you've got to say, has had terrible luck this term. Every time there seemed to be some poll movement or National wobbled (BMWs, for example), a natural disaster, mine explosion or own-goal by one of its own MPs came to the government's rescue.
As black waves wash in to the Mount today from Rena, and political gods laugh in the face of adversity, has the tide turned for our PM and risen for the Greens?
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer man at a better time.
Is this, finally, the hairline crack in the impregnable hull? - will the Rena oil spill be the thing that exposes what lies beneath Mr Key, and swamps whatever public appetite there was for his government's offshore oil policy, little enough at the best of times?
Defence Minister Wayne Mapp faces his final torture test this week, when UNAMA releases a critical report on mistreatment of prisoners in Afghan detention centres.
Top of Wayne Mapp’s things-to-do list before he turns in his Ministerial ticket and leaves Parliament should be the release of the findings of inquiries he instigated in August last year into the possibility that prisoners arreste
Hone Harawira hung onto Te Tai Tokerau in the June by-election after he left the Maori Party. But things have changed since then, which means Mana can take nothing for granted
The minor parties are going to provide much of the best action in this election, and none more so than the Mana Party as Hone Harawira fights to hold Te Tai Tokerau. And while he's starting in pole position, I suspect he's got a struggle on his hands.
The Corrections Department wants to build a new 1,000 bed prison at Wiri for $424 million - based on justice sector projections from 2010. The projections for 2011, however, show a new prison is no longer needed
Does New Zealand need to build a new 1,000 bed prison at Wiri?
American reality - where the uber-wealthy operate under socialism, and capitalism is for the rest. It is a game of nationalised losses and privatised profits, and those occupying Wall St are calling it to account.
The “Occupy Wall St” protests are about to enter their third week, and suddenly America is paying attention.
Don't panic, Mr Mannering! The message being delivered by everyone from Europe's finance ministers to the Bank of England seems to be one of wartime stoicism. But is that enough?
Here in Britain, the wartime poster with stark white lettering on a red background which says 'Keep Calm and Carry On' has become ubiquitous. It's found its way onto mugs, t-shirts and screensavers.
The Justice and Electoral Committee has done a good job on the issue of covert video surveillance. Mostly.
So the Justice and Electoral Committee has reported back on the Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill.
Three new polls reinforce an unchanging overall political landscape and underscore a recent trend that is bad for Labour, good for the Greens, and bad for the left generally
Three new polls came out over the weekend. Collectively, they show National gaining further ground, increasing its support to level last seen in late 2009. All the smaller parties are slowly losing ground.
The double downgrade is exactly what the government didn't want eight weeks out from an election. But is it really so bad? Or does it speak to a larger narrative?
While today the men of New Zealand have joined the women in their fascination with Daniel Carter's groin, the New Zealand economy is looking like it's pulled a muscle as well, after the double downgrades on Friday. Neither are good news for a government hopeful of an easy run-in to November's election.
But neither are as bad as you may think.
What if Don Brash had an alternative motive for his tactics since his takeover of ACT? Is it all a cunning plan?
I've met Don Brash twice.
The first time was during the 2005 election campaign when I was in a shopping mall in Henderson. I don't think he recognised me because he thrust some sort of electronic device under my nose and invited me to calculate my tax cut.
The race to become the next government is effectively over, but there is intrigue in some of the secondary numbers
National retains a very large lead in our latest Poll of Polls, and that lead is growing wider still as we move closer to the election.
They're just wee flags squeezed onto car windows. But they symbolise something much more than rugby and something I hope will out live the Rugby World Cup
When Governor William Hobson famously declared "He iwi tahi tatou" (We are all one people) to the rangatira who signed the Treaty of Waitangi, he left an awkward legacy. I imagine he meant well and all, perhaps as he saw it merely offering some noble words of colonial unity.
I realise repeated posts on the issue of hidden video cameras is not a sure-fire way to increase traffic to this blog, but here we go again ...
Please forgive yet another post on the topic of the Government's "fix" for the problem of hidden video camera surveillance, but I have been invited to give evidence t
Why does our political landscape so often resemble open mic night at the local comedy club?
Politicians, regardless of where they come from, are supposed to be professional. We pay them heaps of money to think carefully about the problems facing their country, to propose workable solutions, to debate the merits of various proposals, and to implement their ideas if we let them.
My prospects as a freelance fixer of public policy problems look distinctly unpromising .
I got a letter emailed to me today from Attorney-General Chris Finlayson.
With the Rugby World Cup brouhaha you'd be forgiven for forgetting there is an election soon. Mike Williams compares the performance of campaign managers Trevor Mallard and Steven Joyce
With all the attention on this rugby tournament, it's easy to forget that the 2011 general election is just around the corner. The countdown's begun, with the first hoardings going up in Auckland over the weekend.
ACT's John Boscawen reads the writing on the wall as the party tries to win over the lock 'em up crowd and the decriminalise drugs crowd at the same time
Rodney Hide must be laughing in his grave, to use one of the great old gags. ACT's political fortunes have gone from bad to worse with the announcement that No. 2 John Boscawen is stepping down from parliament to spend more time with his family.
Obama's dreaded 3am phone call may soon be to tell him Palestinians protesting for their freedoms, as their Arab neighbours are doing, have been mowed down at Israeli controlled checkpoints. What will he suggest to Netanyahu then?
In American politics the phone call warning of foreign policy disaster is always tipped to come at 3 in the morning. Presidents, as presidential hopefuls are quickly made aware, are
My name is being dropped as the author of a potential way to fix the "problem" of covert video surveillance following the Supreme Court's intervention in the Urewera trials. What are the issues at stake?
Given that there's now real debate about the best way to deal with the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision in Hamed v R - the case that calls into question the Police's power to use covert video surveillance to gather evidence - here's some more thoughts on that issue.
The unsurprising surprise of Europe's economic woes and the IMF's latest predictions gets the once-over from new Pundit Fiona McMillan, a London-based New Zealand business journalist.
What's perhaps most amazing about Europe's growth story -- or non-growth story--- is that markets and the folk who watch them continue to react to new data as if it still contains some element of surprise.
Yesterday's IMF growth forecasts are a case in point.
In which our hero riffs about Air New Zealand, Singaporeans, frozen corn, foodieism, and the Burger King barbeque bacon burger, all in one masterful jam session. Inspired by, well, this
A little something
I never go hungry
But I'm not wildly enthusiastic about cooking
I tend to eat very, very simple food
I cook myself steak
Plus either potato
Or frozen peas
Or frozen corn
Or tomato
Or something
My Catholicism
If I'm in a hurry, it's Burger King
Or McDonald's
Occasionally KFC
The fight over the different kinds of wealth on the “impoverished” Denniston plateau is about more than just Denniston. Chances are, it could finish in the Supreme Court
Last week the West Coast Environment Network, Forest & Bird, and others filed appeals against the resource consent granted three weeks earlier, to coal miner Bathurst Resources.
In 2008, a depressed man robbed a bank – not for the money but so the judge would send him to prison. He got no help in prison and three years later he did it again. Is it time for an inquiry into our judicial system?
Last week, the Dominion Post reported the sad case of Mr Craig Andrew Blair who robbed a bank in Rotorua – not for financial gain but so that he would be sent back to prison.
We are told the Supreme Court's ruling on the use of covert video surveillance has caused a major headache for the Police. Let me fix that for you.
My last post set out the Supreme Court's decision on the use of secretly filmed evidence against those accused of participating in the Urewera "training camps"/"terror group"/"consciousness raising sessions" (or whatever you wish to term them).
Looking at the meltdown on the Auckland waterfront on RWC opening night, why didn't National MP's push the alarm button? And why did McCully's own committee predict no more than 50,000 people?
I'm one of the council appointed directors of Auckland Transport and so out of solidarity with its beleaguered officials I attended the Auckland Council Committee meeting which reviewed the disorder surrounding the opening Rugby World Cup game the preceding Friday.
Smile! You may be on Police camera ... and may be again.
Back in 2006, some information found its way to the ears of the NZ Police. Apparently a bunch of Maori activists, environmentalists, social justice campaigners and the like were gathering in the Urewera back-blocks and talking revolution. What is more, they were doing so while playing with guns and other nasty stuff.
We may have got rid of Nanny, but someone’s clearly still doing the babysitting
This time three years ago, a two-word phrase seemed to be gaining unprecedented coverage in New Zealand: Nanny State.
MPs who say things in Parliament are absolutely protected from any legal consequences. The officials who tell them what to say aren't. Who'd be a public servant?
Erin Leigh's ongoing journey through the New Zealand legal process has taken another step towards some sort of resolution.
Erin who? Her what? My my, how soon our memories fade!
The Palestinians will seek full statehood at the UN Security Council next week so as to negotiate peace on a state-to-state basis. Why could that possibly send Israel and the US scrambling? Why indeed.
The Palestinians have announced they are going to the United Nations next week to seek full membership.
The government has been as twinkle-toed as a winger five metres from the try-line in its handling of the opening night chaos down on the Auckland waterfront. Here's the government's playbook laid bare...
If only the government's event management was as good as its political management. Its performance in the days following the weekend's crowd chaos on the Auckland waterfront has been deft, comfortably outmanoeuvring the Auckland Council.
Twelve months in prison for clubbing to death 23 seals, injuring others, leaves nobody with anything to celebrate.
Yesterday, a Marlborough teenager was sentenced to two years in prison, for battering 23 seals and pups to death with a steel pole.
Margaret Mutu has stirred the pot with comments about restricting white immigration. But the true bite comes in her claim that she can't be racist, a claim that no longer holds water
Immigration has long been dry tinder throughout the western world, easily ignited by fiery words. We've seen it in New Zealand, from the poll tax and Chinese:cargo ratio imposed by government in 1881, through the dawn raids of the 1970s, to Winston Peter's anti-Asian rhetoric of the 1990s. Enter, Professor Margaret Mutu.
Governments are bad negotiators, because democracy demands they tip their hand before going to the bargaining table. That means governments get the short end of asset sale deals
A common claim in favour of asset sales is that the sale price is usually the “net present value of future profits”, which means that the sale price plus the interest you save on your lower debt is about the same, over the long term, as the dividends you would have made from keeping the asset. Where does this claim come from?
The misuse of Don McKinnon, the road rage of Tau Henare and how the Rugby World Cup train debacle is just a foretaste of things to come for Auckland
The launch of Paul Holmes' book Daughters of Erebus in Parnell last Monday night was, like all of Paul's social events, a great night. I don't know about the wisdom of opening old wounds, but it was a rare opportunity to mix with the maestro's wide and eclectic circle of friends.
Ten years after those terrible attacks, Al-Qaeda has changed the US way of life. At the same time, the US has fragmented the terror group and killed most of its leaders. So who's winning?
As America looks for meaning today, a decade on from the terror attacks of 9/11, one question keeps nagging at me – who exactly is winning the wars that have followed that awful day?
A God-quoting, science-doubting, swaggering Governor from Texas for President...what could possibly go wrong?
Every now and then it must be quite within the bounds of being a grown up to scream from the roof-tops, “OMG”. Wednesday night in North America was one such occasion.
The work of many years looks to have paid off in our largest city. New Zealanders seem to be putting the rugby corporate nonsense behind them. But can we all now start acting like good hosts?
Auckland, you've got to say, is looking fine. The new art gallery, the souped-up zoo, the new shared-space roads with people walking amongst the cars, the busy Britomart precinct, and the North Wharf, with its funky, Amsterdam-style bridge and people-friendly open spaces.
As the tenth anniversary of September 11 approaches, Americans are learning what Hope and Change really mean... Is Osama bin Laden still winning?
On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian nationalist and member of the Black Hand, shot and killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. The purpose was to throw off the yoke of Austro-Hungarian rule and form an independent Yugoslavia. Within 37 days, all of Europe was engulfed in a tripartite war.
Does the change of political leadership at Federated Farmers amount to a quiet, green revolution? Are farmers realising just how much they've lost touch with urban New Zealand and doing something about it?
Federated Farmers is one of the most powerful lobbying organisations in New Zealand; certainly the dominant voice amongst the many farming and rural groups.
For all the volatility in the latest round of polls, not much has changed. Indeed, change seems to be the last thing voters want right now
Just a note about the Poll of Polls, which Rob has kindly updated. It includes the two television polls from the weekend, but not yet the newspaper efforts from the past two days.
Some imaginary reasons, some ideological reasons, and some surprising ones: why we don’t follow rich Switzerland’s lead by investing in public transport
The Swiss are rich, and yet, they like to ride on buses. They need not be rich to fund the buses; they spend less than New Zealand on transport.
It was nice of the Prime Minister to tell us his government committed to recognizing the new government of Libya some weeks ago and would provide it with “millions” of dollars in aid – but it would be better if he told us why.
As I write, the United Nations is reported to be moving to release its freeze on $100 billion worth of Libyan assets and recognize the country’s National Transitional Council as the new government of Libya.
Two years after the idea was born, Confessions of a Coffee Group Dropout is on the shelves
I am not good at self-promotion, but I am going to give it a shot anyway, because if you can't write about your new book with the pretty pink cover on your very own blog, there probably isn't anywhere you can safely do so.
Looking back over New Zealand elections past, 1963 is another with a familiar look about it
Past elections, with their moods, trends, characters and issues can offer a window on what's happening now. A oft-repeated line at the moment is that this election is looking an awful lot like 2002.
But what about further back?
If we want to gain insight into this election by looking at elections past, we have to look way back – to the last time National was as dominant in the polls, to a time with some uncanny similarities
Labour's descent to barely 30 percent in recent polls has prompted repeated comparisons to National's steep slide in 2002, when Bill English led National to its worst ever defeat. In this scenario, Phil Goff is this year's English and Labour is set for further pain as its support evaporates to 21 percent.
Rehabilitating prisoners requires more action than rhetoric, says the author of a new book on the justice system
In 2009, in an attempt to improve its woeful performance, former chief executive Barry Mathews announced that the Corrections Department’s rehabilitation and reintegration services would be combined into one team. As part of this new strategy, Corrections Minister Judith Collins recently announced the Department is to employ 227 ca
The Americans have finally ramped up sanctions and told Bashar al-Assad to resign as Syria's leader, but the thug's response is that he's there to stay and those who oppose him will be punished. He's can't work out the difference between blood and reform.
Finally the international community has ramped up the pressure on Syria’s dictator to step aside. “Time to get out of the way” Hilary Clinton scolded.
It's looking increasingly as if 2014 will be a false deadline in Afghanistan, with more SAS hand-holding needed for years to come. With the government expected to come under renewed pressure to make a greater commitment, what choice is the PM likely to make?
As the war in Afghanistan closes in on its 10th anniversary, the questions it provokes aren't getting any easier, and as we've felt this weekend with the loss of another New Zealand solider, the cost isn't getting any less, either.
The question bubbling to the surface now is that of withdrawal and how much more will be asked of New Zealand troops.
For the Police to act inconsistently with their own governing legislation once is bad. For them to do it twice is even badder
So, that's one of life's little mysteries solved, then.
National are starting to act like they've got the election in the bag - and if they weren't confident enough already, the Rugby World Cup is just another thing in their favour
It's less than a month until the greatest political distraction the country's seen since, well, who knows when.
That's right, the Rugby World Cup kicks off on September 9 and it's going to suck huge amounts of oxygen out of the political debate in the three months prior to polling day.
If John Key wants to talk about obligations and responsibilities, he should listen more to Warren Buffett and less to David Cameron. Building community is about everyone sharing those old rights and responsibilities
Sometimes fragments of news from all round the world fit together into a single story.
Simon Power needs Act's support to pass the Criminal Procedure (Reform and Modernisation) Bill. Will he tell Act to stuff Heather Roy's Voluntary Student Union Bill where the sun doesn't shine, unless they hold their noses, and support grossly illiberal legislation which does away with the right to silence?
When Chris Kahui was acquitted of murdering his twin sons in 2008, law commissioner Sir Geoffrey Palmer mused that perhaps it was about time we did away with the right to silence for those accused of criminal offences.
He was quoted in the New Zealand Herald: "It is not a change that would happen quickly, but talking about it is not [typo edited] wrong."
The latest move to breathe new life into public broadcasting services is a proposal to turn Radio New Zealand into a multi-media operation. Here’s why it’s worth a crack.
Radio New Zealand does what it does do well. National Radio sets the standard in radio news, current affairs and talk.
Are national parks the things we have when we can’t find anything else to do with them? The Denniston mining proposal is like the Schedule 4 mining proposal, with bonus snails
The Denniston plateau, which is near Mount Augustus, has its own population of threatened giant snails.
Denniston is not a national park. It is not in Schedule 4. It is conservation land, that should have been part of a national park, the Kahurangi National Park. That status was withheld, because of the coal beneath.
David Parker has been touted as a future Labour leader, so what does his decision to stand in Epsom tell us about his ambitions?
Is David Parker's confirmation that he will stand in Epsom a sign of ambition or humility?
The British government, caught off guard and on holdiay, has announced it will meet violent mobs head on with plastic bullets, water cannons and other policing methods required to bring the next Olympic city under control...but for how long?
Britain has some very deep soul-searching ahead of it as the last few violent nights have shown there is a deeply angry parallel society that has probably developed over the last two generations, but now has tasted power.
Sacrifice isn't a popular word, but the government green paper on vulnerable children poses some tough questions for all of us. For one, if we're to really help the worst off, are we prepared to stop judging them?
What price are we willing to pay to make children safer in this country? For all that the timing of the government's green paper conveniently saves National from having to come up with any hard policy until after the election, it does raise the unpopular question of sacrifice and asks what you - and me - are prepared to give up for the sake of tackling our hideous statistics.
Americans may think that they are not in as much economic trouble as Greece but perhaps they should take a closer look, particularly if they factor in the game of chicken their politicians are playing with their futures.
Earlier this week some international newspapers carried a photo of a woman standing outside the Capitol building inWashington with a placard telling those inside playing chicken with the US economy that “we are not Greece”.
 | |||
| 30 Apr | Change | Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 48.3 | +2.0 | 62 |
| Labour | 29.1 | -0.9 | 37 |
| Greens | 13.3 | +0.2 | 17 |
| NZ First | 4.5 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Maori Party | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3 |
| Mana | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Act | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1 |
| United Future | 0.4 | +0.1 | 1 |
| The Pundit Poll of Polls is updated as new polls are released, incorporating the One News/Colmar Brunton, TV3/Reid, NZ Herald/Digipoll, Fairfax/Research International, and Roy Morgan polls. | |||
