polls

Mike Hosking’s statistical ignorance is so extraordinary that one’s immediate reaction is that a description of it was satire; nobody could be as ill-informed as that – and certainly not a major public commentator.

The details are amusingly told on the Spinoff website, but briefly the NZ Herald reported an Auckland Transport survey of 1459 people which stated that ‘support for cycling overall is at 57 per cent, with 34 per cent saying they are “very supportive”.

Poor work gets echoed if it is sensational enough and suits ideological preconceptions..

In a December blog, David Farrar of Kiwiblog claimed that new incoming governments usually enjoy a huge honeymoon surge of post-election support. For instance he wrote

Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu has won the largest single chunk of seats in the latest race for the Knesset meaning he's likely to form a coalition government. However his desperation politics of the last few days exposed a man willing to sink so low as to use the future of Palestine as an election ploy…and that's not all he's capable of. 

Imagine the outrage if a New Zealand Prime Minister, a matter of hours before polling booths closed, took to the social media imploring Kiwis to hurry friends to the polling booths because the Maori are going out in droves to vote...being bused in by the left.

First, stop blaming the media. 

The problem isn't 'right wing framing'. There isn’t a media conspiracy to get a third term National government. When you fall behind everyone airs their favourite explanation and negatives get repeated and amplified. It's the job of politicians, not media, to inspire a change in the story. 

I guess if you want a man who'll resist temptation, a Catholic Southland farmer's as good a bet as any. And it's what Bill English hasn't done in the past five and a half years that has National in pole position for this year's election

If you're wondering, as so many are, how National has been able to maintain the stunning poll lead recorded in the two TV polls over the weekend, you only need to look around the world at the moment. Right-wing parties are looking to exploit short-term circumstances, while Key & English are playing the long game to great effect.