MMP

This is a series of quantitative thoughts on the election outcome. It is based on the 2017 election night vote. Specials are likely to change precise voting shares and even seats. However potential changes do invalidate the column’s overall conclusions.

Summary (which is less numerically challenging)

What do we know, don't we know and think we know after the election night results?

The day after the night before, some things have become clear while some things remain uncertain.

Perhaps clearest is just how wrong were all those who solely attributed the National Party’s previous electoral success to “the John Key effect”. Under a new leader, ending their third term in power, National has attracted a greater share of the vote than when first elected in 2008.

With most parties having announced their lists for the next election, we need to think about how the system works.

  • As some day it may happen that an MP must be found
  • They’re put upon the list - I've got a little list
  • Of political offenders who are always safe and sound
  • And who never would be missed - so I put them on the list.
  • There's opinionated graduates who always are around
  • Who’ve done absolutely nothing but are legislature bound
  • Who know absolutely n

In a classic piece of misdirection, we're being urged to look away from the recent Labour-Greens MOU and towards a future with Winston Peters as PM. I did, and there really isn't much there.

In an effort to make sense of the fact that their theories don't really make sense of the Universe, some theoretical physicists posit that we inhabit but one of an infinite number of multiverses, in which anything that could possibly happen does happen.

The final count of the votes, including special votes, has saved us from having to revisit  our ideas about majority governments under MMP. Oh - and I (sort of) told you so.

As I said here on the eve of polling day (and intimated again here the day after), the 2014 election wasn't over until Saturday, October 4*: