2017 Election

Winston Peters' announcement that he will enter a coalition with Labour gives the 2017 election its final meaning. But it sounds like it was a very, very close run thing.

So, very late yesterday afternoon (let's be charitable) Winston Peters lifted the box's lid and out wandered a cat with a black head, red body and green tail.

New Zealand’s electoral system gives it a parliament which represents voters. Its winner-takes-all executive government, however, remains unrepresentative.* (This is a follow on from the earlier column on coalitions.)

This paper tries to evaluate various coalitions on the basis of their political ideologies. It uses the scores given to parties by the TVNZ website Vote-Compass, which identifies two dimensions: Right-Left and Social Conservative-Social Progressive.

This is a series of quantitative thoughts on the election outcome. It is based on the 2017 election night vote. Specials are likely to change precise voting shares and even seats. However potential changes do not invalidate the column’s overall conclusions.

Summary (which is less numerically challenging)

What do we know, don't we know and think we know after the election night results?

The day after the night before, some things have become clear while some things remain uncertain.

Perhaps clearest is just how wrong were all those who solely attributed the National Party’s previous electoral success to “the John Key effect”. Under a new leader, ending their third term in power, National has attracted a greater share of the vote than when first elected in 2008.

What the Electoral Commission’s attempt to boost turnout gets wrong about voting, and what we can learn from it.

As is customary in the run-up to an election, there is some hand-wringing going on about what turnout is going to be like.