by Rob Salmond

The tide goes out slowly, but it does go out.

National and its dwindling supply of allies have almost exactly the same level of support as the left-leaning combination of Labour and the Greens, our latest poll of polls shows. This result mirrors the individual results of two TV polls, both published yesterday, showing a very close result.

Cue socially awkward victory lap

So the votes are in and President Obama has won a second term. I’ll leave the prognostication about the future of America to others. I want to talk about poll averages!

Our poll of polls continues to show a slow drop in National's fortunes, and an increasingly positive outlook for Labour and the left more broadly.

Three recent polls have provided fairly different stories about the current political landscape. Here is what we see when we average out all the polls in the pundit Poll of Polls: National sits a little above 45%, less than a point above the combination of Labour (32%) and the Greens (12.3%).

The good kind of conspiracy theory

Yesterday Labour’s David Parker gave a speech to some of Labour’s strongest, most loyal supporters in Wellington.

Comes in varying colours, none of them blue.

There has been further discussion this week about how Labour should approach this parliamentary term. Mike Smith at the Standard hopes this can form “a reasonable discussion about how well [Labour’s plans are] working, and what else might work better.” I am happy to participate.

Political strategy need not be an entirely fact-challenged zone.

Lately there have been a few posts flying around about the strategy Labour should employ to win the 2014 election.

Our poll of polls confirms National’s poor showing over the Budget period. Looking ahead, the advantage probably lies with Labour and the Greens

The first full round of opinion polls since the Budget is out, and the trend in our poll of polls is clear: gains for the left and losses for National. National is down almost two points since we last reported the poll of polls on April 30, while Labour is up over two points and the Greens up a touch as well.

Only one day left to put in your MMP Review submissions. Here is one I prepared just now.

In the spirit of earlier large-scale nerdery by electoral system-enamoured-online-commentator-folk, here is my submission to the MMP Review. "Enjoy."


If National is going to keep shining up shit and calling it gold, then I am going to keep exposing it as shit.

National’s latest foray into creatively interpreting statistics to make itself look good is about employment. As the chart below illustrates, the unemployment rate is at its highest level in about the last ten years, and normally we would say this means we aren't doing much good in managing the economy so that people have jobs.


The government makes plenty of excuses for New Zealand’s poor recent GDP growth. Unfortunately for its excuses, data exist.

National’s economic team has made an artform of making excuses. They are earnest and self-confident and mocking of those who dare disagree. But the economic ground they stand on is made of quicksand. Eventually, their excuses will swallow them as New Zealanders come to realize they are being conned.